ENERGY
Canada becoming a wind powerhouse
Biggest growth expected in Quebec and Ontario, with B.C. poised to 'explode'
by RICHARD BLACKWELL, Globe and Mail, March 2007.
Canada's burgeoning wind power market could be among the top five in the world by 2009, according to a new study from a U.S. alternative energy research firm.
"Almost overnight the Canadian wind power market has evolved from obscurity . . . to one of the world's largest and fastest-growing wind power markets," says the report from Emerging Energy Research of Cambridge, Mass.
About $18-billion will be invested in the industry between now and 2015, EER projects, amounting to about one-quarter of the growth in North America and 5 per cent of global growth.
The boom has been prompted by policies of provincial governments, EER says. The provinces are pushing their utilities to buy wind-generated power as part of a commitment to clean energy, and those utilities have been rushing to sign contracts with wind power developers.
"Government policy, especially at the provincial level, has been far and away the main driver behind the current growth that we're seeing," said EER senior analyst Joshua Magee.
As a result of the boom in wind energy production, as much as 5.5 per cent of Canada's energy mix could come from wind by 2015, up from 0.7 per cent in 2006, the report says. In 2006, Canada more than doubled its wind power capacity to about 1,460 megawatts.
Public and political concerns about climate change could see even more wind power development in the coming years, Mr. Magee said. "Pro-active environmental policies, especially around tackling climate change, could potentially push the Canadian wind power industry to numbers even higher than those included in this forecast."
The flurry of project development now under way in several provinces could move Canada into the elite group of countries where wind power is growing the fastest -- a club that includes the United States, Spain, Germany, China and India.
The biggest growth in the Canadian wind market in the next few years will come in Quebec and Ontario, the EER report predicts, and by 2015 those two provinces will account for more than 60 per cent of the total Canadian wind power market.
But British Columbia, which has no wind turbines yet on stream, will also "explode" toward the end of that period, the study says, because of the provincial government's recent commitment to clean energy.
Alberta, which has been a leader in wind development and currently has the second-highest installed base of any province, will experience a slowdown in the next few years, Mr. Magee suggested.
That's because the province has put a temporary cap on wind generation at 900 MW, a result of concerns that higher levels could destabilize the Alberta power grid.
The variability of wind power is an important issue that will have to be overcome as the sector grows, Mr. Magee said. It is crucial, he said, that wind projects be geographically diversified, that new wind forecasting techniques be developed, and that power links between provinces and states become more integrated.
So far most wind power developments in Canada have been built by large energy companies that operate other businesses -- firms such as Brookfield Power, TransAlta Corp. and Nexen Inc. But independent power producers, such as Canadian Hydro Developers Inc. and SkyPower Corp., are also emerging as a key force, the EER report says.
And it adds that there will be further consolidation in the sector, which has already seen a number of takeovers in recent months.
EER's report says the market for turbine hardware in Canada will continue to be served by foreign players, although there will be a shift as General Electric Co. takes market share away from the current leader, Danish company Vestas Wind Systems AS.
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